Marketmind: Calm after — or before — the storm
Written by on November 8, 2021
November 8, 2021
A look at the day ahead from Sujata Rao.
Central banks have managed to walk back the most aggressive rate hike bets, U.S. jobs data last week was robust and a $1 trillion U.S. infrastructure bill has been passed.
Short-dated Treasury yields are down 15 basis points from highs hit last week and Chinese October export data have beaten forecasts.
But despite that backdrop, world stocks are struggling to make headway after hitting record highs. Wall Street futures, so far at least, are in the red.
The view possibly is that this is a reprieve and it won’t be long before the U.S. Federal Reserve starts getting hawkish; October payrolls revealed hefty job additions as well as rising hourly wages. So watch today’s slew of Fed speakers, among them Vice-Chair Richard Clarida.
The recent central bank-linked volatility will also sharpen focus on economic data — Wednesday’s U.S. inflation figure is the centrepiece — forecast to show a further price growth acceleration — followed Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment indicator on Tuesday.
As for today, excitement is building (yet again!) on Tesla after CEO Elon Musk’s Twitter followers voted in favour of him offloading 10% of his share holdings. With speculators possibly jumping in to front-run that sale, Frankfurt-listed shares are down 9%.
Finally, the impact of China’s ongoing regulatory crackdowns continues to trickle through. A $10 billion hit to SoftBank’s Vision fund was driven by its Chinese tech holdings, with its largest asset, e-commerce firm Alibaba losing a third of its value in the second quarter for instance
Later today, infrastructure-linked shares could get a fillip from the passage of the U.S. bill, with oil already up 1%. Finally, as of today, vaccinated non-U.S. citizens can fly to the United States without restrictions — potentially setting the stage for a boost for airlines and jet fuel prices.
Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Monday:
-China Oct exports beat forecasts, offer buffer to slowing economy
-Some investors have not received Evergrande unit’s bond interest due Nov 6, say sources
-UK seems set to invoke emergency measures on NIreland trade
– Higher euro zone inflation temporary
– Fed speakers: Philadelphia President Patrick Harker, Chicago President Charles Evans, Boston Interim President Kenneth Montgomery, Vice Chair Richard Clarida
– Euro zone finance ministers meet
– US 3-year note auction
(For graphic on Inflation on the rise – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/klpykdeakpg/Pasted%20image%201635972322848.png)
(Reporting by Sujata Rao; editing by Dhara Ranasinghe)